Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe81d…bb38 sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 559d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$386 (+26%) realized +$386 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%32W / 23L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$234
other 26% +$89
world 23% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.9% +15.7% 100% 100% +15.7%
≤30d 1 +27.9% +15.7% 100% 100% +15.7%
≤90d 1 +27.9% +15.7% 100% 100% +15.7%
all 55 +48.1% +34.0% 58% 53% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 53% +14.1%
10% +21.2% 49% +3.1%
15% +9.4% 44% -6.8%
20% -1.3% 36% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses32 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage559d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $220 +$61 +28%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $96 −$2 -2%
Bucks vs. Hornets Nov 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $119 +$2 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Nov 16 $14 +$27 +194%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 16 $16 +$29 +178%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? Nov 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? Nov 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? Nov 07 $127 +$3 +2%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $10 +$62 +614%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? Nov 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-21? Nov 04 $23 +$5 +24%
Thunder vs. Pacers Oct 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? Oct 21 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? Oct 21 $18 +$3 +15%
Will Scotland win on 2025-09-08? Oct 11 $14 +$8 +54%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-22? May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers May 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning May 06 $35 +$38 +108%
Mavericks vs. Pacers Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 20 $30 +$30 +100%
Canada vs. Finland Feb 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Sweden vs. USA Feb 19 $18 +$33 +186%
Will Fulham win on 2025-02-01? Feb 17 $15 +$60 +400%
Nets vs. Rockets Feb 17 $10 +$82 +809%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Feb 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Feb 01 $15 +$24 +163%
Knicks vs. Bulls Jan 17 $13 +$26 +194%
Jazz vs. Heat Jan 17 $11 +$37 +331%
76ers vs. Warriors Jan 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Ducks vs. Jets Jan 04 $11 +$29 +257%
Colts vs. Giants Jan 02 $14 +$49 +354%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-26? Dec 29 $14 +$1 +10%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Dec 29 $23 +$8 +35%
Lakers vs. Kings Dec 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Senators vs. Kraken Dec 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Dec 21 $12 +$15 +117%
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning Dec 21 $23 +$9 +41%
Patriots vs. Cardinals Dec 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Colts vs. Broncos Dec 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Navy vs. Army Dec 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Dec 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bengals vs. Cowboys Dec 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Dec 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Hawks vs. Bucks Dec 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $281 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $220 40h
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? SELL No 78¢ $94 205d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? BUY No 80¢ $48 213d
Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? SELL Yes 71¢ $121 213d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? BUY No 80¢ $20 215d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? BUY No 80¢ $24 216d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? BUY No 80¢ $4 217d
Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $119 217d
Bucks vs. Hornets BUY Bucks 68¢ $24 218d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Warriors 36¢ $16 218d
Cavaliers vs. Heat BUY Cavaliers 34¢ $14 218d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? SELL No 87¢ $130 222d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $25 223d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 223d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $11 223d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 223d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 223d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 223d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $28 224d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 224d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 224d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 224d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $17 224d
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? BUY No 85¢ $6 224d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 225d
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 225d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? BUY No 23¢ $14 225d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-21? BUY No 81¢ $23 239d
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records