Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe81d…2270
other · 95 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$25 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$9
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses41 / 50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 4 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $69 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $73 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $3 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $4 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 21 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 21 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 21? Mar 21 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22? Mar 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $6 +$2 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $3 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 18 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 90% −$20
crypto 6% −$5
finance 2% −$1
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 45h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -24.9% -32.0% 38% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 14 -30.2% -36.9% 36% 0% -20.0%
≤90d 76 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 21% -11.3%
all 91 -7.8% -16.5% 45% 21% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 21% -12.8%
10% -24.5% 12% -21.1%
15% -31.8% 5% -28.8%
20% -38.5% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.88 · official $8.88 (match) · 402 history records