Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe81d…f2dd crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$8 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$3
other 30% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 64 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 64 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% -12.5%
all 64 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -12.5%
10% -20.9% 50% -20.9%
15% -28.6% 50% -28.5%
20% -35.6% 50% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $47 $37 −$10 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.76 · official $38.59 · 98 history records