Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe81f…6bab
other · 55 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$9 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)43 / 55
History coverage71d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 12 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 21 $3 +$3 +85%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $33 −$12 -37%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $61 +$5 +9%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $15 +$11 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +10%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 05 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $2 −$1 -40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $9 +$7 +80%
Will "The Drama" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 03 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% +$11
sports 20% −$13
politics 5% −$4
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $3 23d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $3 23d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 39d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 40d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $66 51d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $56 52d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 53d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 53d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 53d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 53d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 55d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 55d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 55d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? SELL No 51¢ $3 58d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 37¢ $2 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? SELL No 35¢ $5 59d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 59d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -72.7% -75.3% 0% 0% -49.2%
≤30d 4 -33.2% -39.6% 25% 25% -30.5%
≤90d 43 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 37% -12.5%
all 43 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 37% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 37% -12.5%
10% -28.2% 33% -20.8%
15% -35.2% 26% -28.5%
20% -41.5% 23% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.84 · official $29.84 (match) · 171 history records