trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 05 | $25 | +$8 | +33% |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 06 | $30 | +$5 | +17% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 17 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Blues vs. Sharks | Apr 13 | $157 | +$150 | +96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 16? | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 43.0 on March 13, 2026? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Mar 10 | $1 | −$1 | -67% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +17.8% | +6.6% | 100% | 50% | +19.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +19.8% | +8.4% | 88% | 38% | +50.9% |
| all | 11 | +8.6% | -1.8% | 82% | 27% | +49.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.8% | 27% | +49.9% |
| 10% | -11.2% | 18% | +35.6% |
| 15% | -19.7% | 9% | +22.5% |
| 20% | -27.6% | 9% | +10.5% |