Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe826…adb7 weather 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$104 (-32%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$105
other 34% +$26
sports 6% −$19
tech 3% −$6
crypto 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -67.6% -70.7% 14% 10% -73.8%
≤30d 23 -52.0% -56.6% 22% 17% -40.7%
≤90d 23 -52.0% -56.6% 22% 17% -40.7%
all 23 -52.0% -56.6% 22% 17% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.6% 17% -40.7%
10% -60.7% 17% -46.4%
15% -64.5% 17% -51.6%
20% -68.0% 13% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +36%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$24 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $37 −$36 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 +$36 +292%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $55 +$38 +69%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $17 +$27 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records