trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 12 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $51 | $51 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 18? | Jun 19 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 17? | Jun 19 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? | Jun 19 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? | May 15 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? | May 15 | $76 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 17 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? | Apr 17 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? | Apr 17 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? | Apr 02 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Will XRP reach $2.00 March 16-22? | Apr 02 | $75 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Mar 20 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Mar 20 | $73 | +$2 | +3% |