Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe827…036d crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%12W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$2
other 21% $0
world 16% +$2
weather 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 12 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses12 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage109d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 18? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 17? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 March 16-22? Apr 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 20 $73 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.10 · official $126.10 (match) · 27 history records