Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe82d…d96b other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$261 (-0%) realized −$1,435 · open +$1,174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%70W / 39L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$479
7 days+$656
14 days+$524
30 days+$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3,819
other 24% +$1,840
politics 12% +$973
sports 3% +$715
finance 1% −$7
tech 0% −$93
crypto 0% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +66.7% +50.8% 29% 29% +74.9%
≤30d 29 +53.4% +38.8% 34% 34% +2.7%
≤90d 53 +19.8% +8.4% 45% 43% -12.5%
all 109 +12.8% +2.1% 64% 43% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 43% -12.3%
10% -7.7% 28% -20.7%
15% -16.6% 19% -28.3%
20% -24.8% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$310 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$3,899
Realized−$1,435
Unrealized+$1,174
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses70 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions10
Markets (closed)109 / 119
History coverage227d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 100¢ $1,069 $1,708 +$639 (+60%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 80¢ $1,005 $1,352 +$347 (+34%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 50¢ 91¢ $250 $455 +$205 (+82%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $117 $113 −$5 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $72 $67 −$5 (-7%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $61 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$66 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$592 +1396%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$118 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 +$305 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$57 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 +$138 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $3,372 −$131 -4%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe May 23 $64 +$11 +17%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $383 +$67 +18%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 18 $473 +$83 +18%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 13 $377 −$374 -99%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $495 +$55 +11%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $381 +$196 +52%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $175 +$105 +60%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $175 +$153 +87%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $285 +$143 +50%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Apr 22 $199 +$48 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Apr 20 $17 +$3 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 14 $941 −$941 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 14 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 06 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 06 $451 −$451 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Apr 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $243 +$57 +24%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $746 +$214 +29%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $1,841 +$647 +35%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $19 $0 +2%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $34 +$9 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $68 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $120 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $74 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $62 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $42 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $120 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 26h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $82 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $69 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,899.21 · official $3,899.21 (match) · 366 history records