Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe82d…adc8
crypto · 132 markets active 4d ago
0.5score
+$1,275 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$996 · open +$2,270
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$12,182
Realized−$996
Unrealized+$2,270
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 104
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $9,912 $12,182 +$2,270 (+23%)
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-04-12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-04-12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $1,650 −$208 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 22 $35 −$33 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $80 −$44 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $1,157 −$492 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 06 $82 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 23 $165 +$34 +21%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eyüpspor vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Apr 14 $343 −$343 -100%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football vs. ES Troyes AC end in a draw? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $9 +$18 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 13 $34 −$14 -40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $944 −$351 -37%
Counter-Strike: Young TigeRES vs Vexar (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders # Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-04-12? Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $20 +$75 +376%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $1,098 +$1,000 +91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $0 $0 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 28 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 27 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 90% +$2,207
crypto 5% −$270
other 3% −$272
sports 2% −$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,406 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,400 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,173 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,442 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,442 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $91 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 6¢ $92 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $300 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,000 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $80 36d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? SELL No 85¢ $80 36d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 87¢ $82 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 39d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 39d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 39d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 40d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -52.6% -57.2% 0% 0% -33.6%
≤90d 131 -52.0% -56.5% 21% 19% -22.6%
all 131 -52.0% -56.5% 21% 19% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.5% 19% -22.6%
10% -60.7% 17% -30.0%
15% -64.5% 14% -36.8%
20% -68.0% 12% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,182.39 · official $12,182.39 (match) · 365 history records