Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe831…a42a other 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 201d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,659 (+1%) realized +$2,533 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%228W / 136L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$793per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 201d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$21,142
sports 24% +$17,872
culture 2% +$1,704
politics 0% +$229
crypto 0% −$100
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.5% -38.0% 50% 44% -10.7%
≤30d 104 -6.0% -15.0% 70% 62% -13.3%
≤90d 195 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 59% -12.6%
all 364 +4.3% -5.6% 63% 54% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 54% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 35% -18.6%
15% -22.9% 26% -26.5%
20% -30.5% 17% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$970) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$367 vs −$633 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$1,638
Realized+$2,533
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses228 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions6
Markets (closed)364 / 370
History coverage201d ⚠
Avg bet$793
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1,012 $1,000 −$12 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $100 $296 +$196 (+195%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 −$98 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $125 +$75 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$49 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $623 +$1 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,326 +$264 +20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $443 +$82 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $125 −$124 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $408 +$132 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$101 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$63 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $592 +$113 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $104 −$103 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $104 −$102 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$112 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $456 +$144 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $514 −$514 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $503 +$122 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $933 +$101 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $103 −$101 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $392 +$430 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $121 +$79 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $278 −$275 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $445 −$113 -25%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $915 +$80 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1,913 +$338 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $3,315 −$3,315 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $1,556 +$168 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $2,994 −$2,992 -100%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $534 +$46 +9%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,922 +$334 +17%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $590 +$143 +24%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $970 +$60 +6%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1,069 +$198 +18%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $2,958 +$332 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana Jun 01 $517 +$270 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $929 +$225 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $4,707 +$2,149 +46%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $104 +$106 +101%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $18 $0 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $544 +$211 +39%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $634 +$211 +33%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-28? May 30 $901 +$166 +18%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $1,767 +$172 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,030 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $101 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $22 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $535 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $1 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $10 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $20 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $25 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $11 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $521 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $1,326 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $99 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $104 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $104 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $104 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $408 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $514 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $103 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $443 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $58 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,637.90 · official $1,637.90 (match) · 3500 history records