Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe832…7abb
sports · 235 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$2,676 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,675 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$51
Realized+$2,675
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses121 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage354d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$198
14 days−$198
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 30¢ 38¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 40¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Spread: Heat (-7.5) Heat 50¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Oregon Ducks vs. San Diego State Aztecs Oregon Ducks 57¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5) Duke Blue Devils 52¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
O/U 57.5 Over 47¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline Mavericks 47¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5 Over 51¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Penn State vs. Clemson Clemson 50¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Florida Gators (-13.5) Florida Gators 56¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Heat vs. Lakers Heat 36¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 61¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds Boston Red Sox 55¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Bills (-5.5) Bills 50¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Spread: Louisville (-11.5) Louisville 51¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Spread: Buffalo Bulls (-3.5) Buffalo Bulls 59¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
1H Spread: Heat (-3.5) Heat 51¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Spread: Miami (-17.5) Miami 51¢ $515 $0 −$515 (-100%)
Heat vs. Magic Heat 49¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: UNLV Runnin' (-6.5) UNLV Runnin 51¢ $995 $0 −$995 (-100%)
Texas A&M vs. Texas: O/U 52.5 Over 55¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Clippers Pistons 59¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Navy vs. Memphis: O/U 59.5 Over 47¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
1H Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Lions 50¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5 Over 59¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $201 −$198 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Mar 31 $65 −$65 -99%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $25 +$40 +161%
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Mar 31 $35 −$35 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Mar 31 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Mar 30 $25 +$31 +125%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Mar 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 114.5 Mar 30 $5 +$4 +82%
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5 Mar 30 $25 +$23 +92%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Mar 29 $25 +$33 +132%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5) Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League Ma Mar 29 $25 +$21 +85%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Mar 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Mar 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins Mar 28 $25 +$13 +54%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Mar 28 $25 +$23 +92%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5 Dec 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Jaguars (-3.5) Dec 28 $27 +$32 +116%
Seahawks vs. Panthers: O/U 42.5 Dec 28 $100 −$100 -100%
LSU vs. Houston Dec 28 $54 +$74 +138%
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5) Dec 28 $100 −$100 -100%
O/U 56.5 Dec 28 $86 +$68 +79%
Penn State vs. Clemson Dec 27 $100 −$100 -100%
California vs. Hawaii Dec 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: UNLV Runnin' (-6.5) Dec 23 $995 −$995 -100%
Will Justin Hood win the PDC World Darts Championship? Dec 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Louisville (-11.5) Dec 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: UCF Knights (-7.5) Dec 23 $130 −$130 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Dec 23 $100 +$92 +92%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 Dec 23 $241 +$197 +82%
Washington State vs. Utah State Dec 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-14.5) Dec 22 $100 +$96 +96%
Spread: Ravens (-3.5) Dec 22 $117 +$127 +108%
Chargers vs. Cowboys Dec 22 $79 +$89 +113%
Spread: Vikings (-2.5) Dec 22 $100 +$92 +92%
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Dec 21 $247 +$311 +126%
Spread: Eagles (-6.5) Dec 21 $200 +$164 +82%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Dec 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Dec 20 $167 +$221 +132%
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Dec 20 $60 +$107 +178%
Will William O’Connor win the PDC World Darts Championship? Dec 19 $4 −$4 -100%
O/U 57.5 Dec 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan Dec 19 $100 +$64 +64%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Dec 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) Dec 16 $100 +$92 +92%
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5 Dec 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Dec 15 $100 +$108 +108%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) Dec 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$2,636
other 2% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $25 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 30¢ $26 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $201 5h
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Thunder 53¢ $65 74d
76ers vs. Heat SELL Heat 100¢ $65 74d
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $35 74d
76ers vs. Heat BUY Heat 38¢ $25 74d
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins $1 74d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $56 74d
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $25 75d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $30 75d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $25 75d
Knicks vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 114.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 75d
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 76d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $58 76d
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5) BUY Duke Blue Devils 52¢ $3 76d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $30 76d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 43¢ $25 76d
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League Ma SELL FaZe Vegas 100¢ $46 76d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $25 76d
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League Ma BUY FaZe Vegas 54¢ $25 76d
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 76d
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $38 76d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $48 76d
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 65¢ $25 77d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $25 77d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Pistons 59¢ $101 166d
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5 BUY Over 51¢ $59 167d
Spread: Jaguars (-3.5) SELL Jaguars 99¢ $59 167d
Spread: Jaguars (-3.5) BUY Jaguars 46¢ $27 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 17 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 47% -45.8%
all 233 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 52% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 52% -3.3%
10% -16.7% 52% -12.6%
15% -24.7% 51% -21.0%
20% -32.1% 49% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.31 · official $51.31 (match) · 384 history records