Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E8 0xe835…cd50 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$497 (-6%) realized −$615 · open +$118
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%58W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$117
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$164
sports 35% −$225
world 0% +$12
crypto 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 44 -12.1% -20.4% 48% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 92 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 47% -10.2%
all 117 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 49% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 49% -15.8%
10% -19.5% 48% -23.9%
15% -27.3% 45% -31.2%
20% -34.4% 37% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$44 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,612
Realized−$615
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 59
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions8
Markets (closed)117 / 130
History coverage244d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 48¢ $240 $435 +$195 (+81%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $364 $358 −$6 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $389 $296 −$93 (-24%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $240 $270 +$30 (+12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 38¢ 36¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $25 −$6 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$117 +115%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $23 −$21 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $501 +$209 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $19 +$31 +164%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 +$40 +157%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $19 +$16 +81%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $72 +$48 +67%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $69 +$51 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $185 +$99 +54%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $116 −$114 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $280 +$97 +35%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $137 −$135 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$12 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$142 +93%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$34 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $271 −$268 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $262 +$149 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$130 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $74 +$84 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $244 +$96 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 38¢ $31 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $31 14h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 46¢ $102 31h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 37h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $60 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 44¢ $26 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $501 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $107 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 37¢ $19 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 42¢ $203 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $19 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $69 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 19¢ $5 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $64 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $72 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $14 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 32¢ $20 7d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 25¢ $10 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $177 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,612.10 · official $1,612.11 (match) · 372 history records