Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe836…8e7e sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$230 (-18%) realized −$164 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$32
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$100
politics 17% −$53
other 15% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +96.1% +77.5% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤30d 14 +8.3% -2.0% 36% 36% -20.7%
≤90d 14 +8.3% -2.0% 36% 36% -20.7%
all 14 +8.3% -2.0% 36% 36% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 36% -20.7%
10% -11.4% 36% -28.3%
15% -19.9% 29% -35.2%
20% -27.8% 21% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$40 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage24d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ $208 $156 −$53 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $136 $122 −$13 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 +$56 +56%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $302 +$108 +36%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $4 +$32 +786%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $55 −$54 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $45 −$45 -99%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.65 · official $277.65 (match) · 49 history records