Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe83b…7769 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% $0
other 18% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 7% +$2
culture 7% $0
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 11% -9.5%
all 46 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -9.1%
10% -15.6% 4% -17.8%
15% -23.7% 2% -25.7%
20% -31.2% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage259d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -35%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 26 $7 +$2 +32%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $170 October 13-19? Oct 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $1 +$1 +111%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $29 23h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $3 43h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $30 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $31 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 60¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.32 · official $30.52 (match) · 139 history records