Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe83d…3324 crypto 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,808 (-3%) realized −$2,298 · open −$510
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%154W / 79L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$6,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,024
7 days+$2,019
14 days+$2,019
30 days+$2,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$923
other 29% +$2,395
sports 21% −$3,889
politics 5% −$497
tech 3% −$161
world 1% −$197
culture 0% +$10
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +68.5% +52.5% 83% 75% +35.9%
≤30d 12 +68.5% +52.5% 83% 75% +35.9%
≤90d 54 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 43% -15.2%
all 233 -3.8% -13.0% 66% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 52% -12.8%
10% -21.3% 34% -21.2%
15% -28.9% 22% -28.8%
20% -35.9% 16% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$268 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$6,077
Realized−$2,298
Unrealized−$510
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses154 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions17
Markets (closed)233 / 250
History coverage572d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? No 34¢ 36¢ $911 $964 +$53 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $712 $733 +$21 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $704 $716 +$12 (+2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 69¢ 85¢ $552 $679 +$127 (+23%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $560 $555 −$5 (-1%)
Revolut IPO before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $500 $518 +$18 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $390 $412 +$22 (+6%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 47¢ $510 $352 −$158 (-31%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 26¢ $602 $229 −$372 (-62%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 84¢ 95¢ $168 $191 +$23 (+14%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $160 $154 −$6 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $132 $135 +$3 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $133 $117 −$16 (-12%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $124 $112 −$12 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $118 $107 −$10 (-9%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 57¢ 20¢ $256 $90 −$166 (-65%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $55 $11 −$43 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $259 +$241 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $174 +$426 +246%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $670 +$269 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $224 +$276 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,129 +$671 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $215 +$85 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $360 −$360 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $374 +$426 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $55 +$145 +262%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $188 +$12 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $231 −$228 -99%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $92 +$58 +64%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $228 +$22 +10%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 10 $42 +$7 +17%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) Apr 06 $140 −$140 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Apr 05 $20 +$5 +24%
Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $150 +$33 +22%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 3? Apr 04 $200 +$152 +76%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $150 +$461 +307%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Apr 03 $300 −$300 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Apr 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Apr 02 $106 +$44 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $200 +$11 +6%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $220 +$30 +14%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Mar 31 $100 +$138 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 29 $200 +$33 +17%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 29 $268 −$268 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 29 $368 −$368 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 27 $116 −$116 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 25 $426 +$174 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $362 +$688 +190%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Mar 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Mar 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Mar 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Mar 21 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Mar 21 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Mar 21 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Mar 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 21 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Mar 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 18 $460 +$140 +30%
California vs. Hawaii Mar 18 $816 −$816 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-28? Mar 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Mar 18 $189 −$189 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $567 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $145 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $275 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $259 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $135 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 27h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY No 35¢ $478 30h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY No 34¢ $451 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $133 31h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $6 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $100 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $5 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $1 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $3 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $2 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $4 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $2 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $125 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $2 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $10 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $47 34h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $127 34h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $163 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $169 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $363 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,076.79 · official $6,076.79 (match) · 993 history records