Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe844…d224 crypto 542 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,283 (+3%) realized +$7,283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%532W / 144L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day169.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,668
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -37.2% -43.2% 62% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 676 -19.0% -26.7% 79% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 676 -19.0% -26.7% 79% 0% -10.6%
all 676 -19.0% -26.7% 79% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 0% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -40.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -46.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$693) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$47 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses532 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)676 / 542
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$496
Trades / day169.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 676 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $247 −$247 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$10 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$11 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$21 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$14 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records