Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe846…39c3 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$379 (+14%) realized +$414 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$410
7 days+$526
14 days+$612
30 days+$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$226
other 43% +$205
world 5% +$22
culture 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 50% +24.9%
≤30d 46 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 48% +18.6%
≤90d 46 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 48% +18.6%
all 55 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 44% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 44% +9.1%
10% -25.2% 36% -1.4%
15% -32.4% 36% -10.9%
20% -39.0% 27% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$14 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$414
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage158d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Yes 24¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $378 +$157 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $199 +$179 +90%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $177 +$115 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +216%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$15 +37%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$25 +164%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $158 +$19 +12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +477%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 +$68 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$24 +237%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $22 +$14 +64%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $172 +$14 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $15 +$15 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 −$15 -59%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $152 +$28 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $84 +$13 +16%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 08 $11 +$5 +51%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jan 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be great Jan 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-16? Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $378 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $199 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 61¢ $208 19h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 21h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Endrick: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on BUY 31¢ $51 43h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $25 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $177 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 58¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to S BUY 55¢ $15 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Austria leading at halftime? BUY 37¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $50 4d
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $177 4d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 89¢ $158 4d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 4d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 93 history records