Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe84b…6bc3 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+15%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$64
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$103
other 35% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -15.8% -23.8% 24% 24% +17.9%
≤30d 24 -24.8% -32.0% 21% 21% +9.4%
≤90d 24 -24.8% -32.0% 21% 21% +9.4%
all 24 -24.8% -32.0% 21% 21% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 21% +9.4%
10% -38.5% 21% -1.1%
15% -44.5% 17% -10.6%
20% -49.9% 17% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$5 · ×5.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -84%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +263%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$65 +213%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $18 −$3 -15%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$38 +246%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +272%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 18¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. BUY $4 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan BUY $21 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes $0 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $96 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes $5 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records