Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe84b…7284 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% −$7
other 24% −$30
politics 23% −$12
crypto 12% −$7
world 9% −$8
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% −$7
finance 2% −$2
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 71 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 113 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 122 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 113
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage99d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 92¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $259 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $478 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $305 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $125 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $158 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $153 −$2 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $85 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $65 −$3 -5%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $276 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $57 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $121 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $86 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 04 $60 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $22 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $46 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $45 $0 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $369 −$2 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $96 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $55 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $54 50m
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $50 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $51 9h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 10h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 14h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $5 14h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $5 20h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $49 21h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $49 25h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $47 25h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $47 32h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $66 32h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $67 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $55 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $53 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $55 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.54 · official $53.54 (match) · 457 history records