Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe84c…2c56 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$444 (-25%) realized −$452 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$458
other 27% −$3
crypto 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 7 -21.6% -29.1% 29% 0% -23.1%
all 26 -12.6% -20.9% 27% 19% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 19% -38.0%
10% -28.5% 19% -44.0%
15% -35.4% 19% -49.4%
20% -41.7% 15% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$46 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage131d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $109 $124 +$15 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $39 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $83 +$3 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $55 −$6 -10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $23 −$6 -27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 −$5 -20%
Thunder vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5 Mar 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: UNLV Runnin' Rebels (-10.5) Mar 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Yosuke Watanuki vs. Francesco Maestrelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $80 −$2 -2%
Watanuki vs. Maestrelli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 16 $103 −$2 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Mar 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Zverev vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Mar 15 $20 +$105 +525%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators: O/U 160.5 Mar 14 $56 +$113 +202%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 160.5 Mar 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 Mar 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 134.5 Mar 14 $48 +$54 +112%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Mar 09 $62 −$62 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5 Mar 09 $81 +$112 +138%
Marist Red Foxes vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats: O/U 133.5 Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers: O/U 160.5 Mar 07 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Feb 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 11 $6 +$3 +45%
BYU Cougars vs. Baylor Bears Feb 11 $103 −$97 -94%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Feb 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 36m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 36m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 37m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $85 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 11d
Thunder vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5 BUY Under 45¢ $28 88d
Spread: UNLV Runnin' Rebels (-10.5) BUY UNLV Runnin Rebels 45¢ $88 91d
Suns vs. Timberwolves BUY Suns 38¢ $68 91d
Yosuke Watanuki vs. Francesco Maestrelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 50¢ $78 93d
Watanuki vs. Maestrelli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 50¢ $101 93d
Yosuke Watanuki vs. Francesco Maestrelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $80 93d
Watanuki vs. Maestrelli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.22 · official $270.22 (match) · 63 history records