Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe84e…fc0b other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$94 (-0%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$30
politics 14% −$4
sports 7% −$58
economics 5% −$2
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -6.2% -15.2% 8% 4% -9.8%
all 103 -6.2% -15.2% 8% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.7% 3% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage89d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $285 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $918 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $304 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $271 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $517 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 03 $257 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $262 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $257 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $266 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $488 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $652 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $280 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $560 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $775 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 4h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $108 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 22d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 23d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 24d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $105 27d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 27d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 28d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 28d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 29d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $50 30d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.43 · official $108.43 (match) · 295 history records