Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe851…ad9e sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-6%) realized −$364 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%41W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days−$1,015
14 days−$960
30 days−$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$397
sports 19% +$159
other 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -83.5% -85.0% 4% 4% -38.7%
≤30d 51 -73.6% -76.1% 12% 12% -23.6%
≤90d 74 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 36% -17.2%
all 91 +9.4% -1.1% 45% 42% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 42% -15.5%
10% -10.5% 38% -23.6%
15% -19.2% 34% -30.9%
20% -27.1% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +117% → late -96% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$364
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses41 / 50
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage231d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 60¢ 100¢ $144 $238 +$94 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,092 +$237 +22%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO1) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a dra Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA - Map 3 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Astralis (BO1) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,447 −$717 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $347 −$288 -83%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +474%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $135 +$48 +35%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $12 +$7 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $258 +$116 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $126 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 32¢ $42 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $177 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $14 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $26 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $27 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $49 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $21 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $34 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 9¢ $4 36h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 38h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: Both Te BUY 21¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $500 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $318 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $319 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $28 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $291 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $319 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $193 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $35 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $12 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $14 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.48 · official $238.48 (match) · 324 history records