Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe853…aadf other 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%18W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
other 27% −$6
politics 21% −$4
crypto 8% −$2
economics 7% $0
culture 5% $0
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses18 / 221
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage176d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $61 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $68 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 20 $36 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 20 $283 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $127 −$1 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $126 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 15 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $139 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 09 $40 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 09 $155 +$1 +1%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 07 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $36 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $36 12d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $26 25d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $26 25d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $34 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $34 40d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $30 95d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $30 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $27 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $27 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 95d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $37 95d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 96d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $27 96d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $27 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $35 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $36 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $29 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $29 97d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $30 97d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $21 97d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $9 97d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $33 97d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $33 97d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $34 97d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $34 97d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $29 97d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $29 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.34 · official $31.34 (match) · 903 history records