Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe857…7b3b sports 659 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,317 (-6%) realized −$2,803 · open −$514
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%211W / 445L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$1,205est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,187
7 days−$1,710
14 days−$3,737
30 days−$4,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$4,989
other 6% +$47
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -11.7% -20.1% 37% 35% -17.1%
≤30d 340 -24.5% -31.6% 32% 31% -19.6%
≤90d 656 -20.2% -27.8% 32% 30% -16.7%
all 656 -20.2% -27.8% 32% 30% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 30% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 29% -24.7%
15% -41.0% 28% -31.9%
20% -46.8% 24% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$58 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$2,803
Unrealized−$514
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses211 / 445
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,205
Open positions3
Markets (closed)656 / 659
History coverage59d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Zhizhen Zhang 22¢ 46¢ $190 $397 +$207 (+109%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Talia Gibson 27¢ 0¢ $523 $1 −$522 (-100%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Kilian Feldbausch 34¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $426 +$195 +46%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $187 −$187 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $346 −$346 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $357 +$81 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $844 +$332 +39%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $193 +$179 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $296 +$8 +3%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $506 −$506 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $428 −$428 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $409 +$286 +70%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $304 +$295 +97%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $187 −$93 -50%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $408 −$114 -28%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $203 +$181 +89%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $759 +$609 +80%
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Joshua Charlton Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 18 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 18 $286 −$286 -100%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $246 −$246 -100%
ITF Irvine: Neo Niedner vs Matt Kuhar Jun 18 $398 +$107 +27%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $747 +$175 +23%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $436 −$436 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $564 −$134 -24%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $507 +$419 +83%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $144 +$97 +67%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $274 −$274 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $159 −$32 -20%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 17 $327 +$261 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $224 11m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 22¢ $194 46m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 17¢ $203 49m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 34¢ $204 52m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $127 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $283 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 44¢ $330 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $1,176 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $114 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 46¢ $111 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 53¢ $41 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 34¢ $35 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 39¢ $8 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 73¢ $37 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 71¢ $807 2h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 30¢ $102 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 54¢ $203 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 8¢ $51 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 44¢ $244 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 15h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 30¢ $71 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $372 16h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 31¢ $102 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $193 17h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 53¢ $397 17h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 33¢ $183 18h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 53¢ $116 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 23¢ $187 19h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 44¢ $695 19h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 25¢ $409 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.52 · official $251.70 · 1770 history records