Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe858…ef1c
crypto · 1250 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,463 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,461 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$11,461
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses677 / 849
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1526 / 1250
History coverage93d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1526 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,907
7 days−$10,820
14 days−$10,906
30 days−$10,980
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Down 82¢ 99¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Up 17¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $336 $0 −$336 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $48 −$34 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$46 -313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $560 −$519 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$592
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 491 -58.7% -62.6% 23% 14% -80.0%
≤30d 732 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 25% -64.4%
≤90d 1483 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 39% -32.4%
all 1526 -22.0% -29.4% 44% 39% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 39% -30.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 36% -37.5%
15% -42.4% 33% -43.5%
20% -48.0% 29% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.90 · official $24.90 (match) · 3500 history records