Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe859…bbf6 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+3%) realized +$35 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$9
crypto 13% +$33
sports 7% −$11
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -13.3% -21.6% 33% 29% -8.8%
≤30d 48 -13.3% -21.6% 33% 29% -8.8%
≤90d 48 -13.3% -21.6% 33% 29% -8.8%
all 48 -13.3% -21.6% 33% 29% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 29% -8.8%
10% -29.1% 21% -17.6%
15% -35.9% 19% -25.5%
20% -42.2% 17% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage5d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 80¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $110 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$9 -45%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -57%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $7 −$2 -26%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$8 -34%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 +$8 +12%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $66 +$11 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$11 +344%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $2 +$13 +626%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$12 -19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 +$49 +39%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 $0 -13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 +$12 +10%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 −$2 -26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$18 -45%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -78%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$32 +317%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 +$12 +13%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $13 +$23 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$11 +23%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -91%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -39%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 9h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 21h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 21h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 27h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 28h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 35h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 35h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.23 · official $32.23 (match) · 111 history records