Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe859…6043 crypto 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$307 (+13%) realized +$307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate68%75W / 35L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 59% -3.8%
≤30d 110 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 59% -3.8%
≤90d 110 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 59% -3.8%
all 110 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 59% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 59% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 46% -13.0%
15% -23.5% 35% -21.4%
20% -31.0% 23% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses75 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$37 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$37 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $59 +$32 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$34 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $57 +$43 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$18 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$30 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$12 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$23 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $24 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $81 −$17 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $47 +$17 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $33 +$53 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $29 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $19 +$16 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$7 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $43 +$38 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $39 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $60 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $19 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records