Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe85d…b370 crypto 510 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%258W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$235
14 days+$297
30 days+$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 27% +47.4%
≤30d 295 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 43% -4.4%
≤90d 356 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 44% -7.2%
all 510 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 39% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 39% -10.1%
10% -21.2% 27% -18.7%
15% -28.8% 19% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses258 / 252
Open positions0
Markets (closed)510 / 510
History coverage117d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 510 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$168 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $74 +$49 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $94 +$40 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $38 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $45 −$30 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$18 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $38 −$26 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $23 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $43 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $46 −$14 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $38 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $37 −$27 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $29 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $35 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $23 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$39 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$22 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $43 −$25 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $38 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$23 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $34 −$19 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1969 history records