Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe85d…ad4b sports 407 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,308 (-4%) realized −$5,943 · open −$365
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%99W / 305L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$3,195est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$718
7 days−$518
14 days−$1,201
30 days−$9,946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$4,522
other 11% −$2,961
crypto 1% −$459
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -25.3% -32.5% 17% 17% -12.3%
≤30d 294 -18.3% -26.1% 21% 21% -17.0%
≤90d 404 -17.2% -25.1% 25% 24% -13.8%
all 404 -17.2% -25.1% 25% 24% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 24% -13.8%
10% -32.2% 24% -22.1%
15% -38.8% 23% -29.6%
20% -44.8% 23% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$962 vs −$337 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$5,943
Unrealized−$365
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses99 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$3,195
Open positions3
Markets (closed)404 / 407
History coverage38d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 26¢ 48¢ $130 $238 +$108 (+83%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $192 $186 −$6 (-3%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $476 $10 −$467 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $192 −$187 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $697 −$680 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $194 −$190 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $92 +$195 +213%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $398 +$1,527 +383%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $165 +$325 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $165 −$161 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $89 −$87 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -97%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $166 −$161 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $165 −$161 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $93 −$91 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $206 −$200 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $104 −$101 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $196 +$206 +105%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $135 −$131 -97%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $167 −$163 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $129 −$126 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $308 −$300 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $96 +$239 +250%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $59 −$57 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $98 −$95 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $593 −$582 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $168 −$164 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $256 −$250 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $719 −$700 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $404 −$188 -46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $151 −$147 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $205 +$959 +468%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $308 −$300 -97%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $164 −$164 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $199 −$195 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $197 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 26¢ $133 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $192 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $103 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $185 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $513 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $92 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $194 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $409 12h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 99¢ $287 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $514 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,925 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $91 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $307 15h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 31¢ $92 16h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $490 16h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $165 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $165 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $89 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $23 42h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo BUY Yuliana Lizarazo 3¢ $10 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $166 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $165 44h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 25¢ $93 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $206 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 11¢ $52 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 11¢ $51 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha SELL Shuai Zhang 99¢ $402 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.63 · official $433.63 (match) · 641 history records