Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe85d…0d61 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$646 (-33%) realized −$644 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$131
14 days−$141
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$605
tech 24% +$47
finance 18% −$20
world 6% +$6
other 4% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -77.3% -79.4% 0% 0% -62.5%
≤90d 11 -34.8% -41.0% 27% 9% -41.2%
all 11 -34.8% -41.0% 27% 9% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 9% -41.2%
10% -46.6% 9% -46.8%
15% -51.8% 9% -51.9%
20% -56.5% 0% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$93 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$644
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage60d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $71 $69 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 −$68 -98%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $110 −$10 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $103 −$5 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $210 −$9 -4%
76ers vs. Knicks May 03 $580 −$580 -100%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season May 03 $102 +$38 +38%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $473 +$47 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $36 −$6 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 18 $113 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $73 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $12 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $52 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $70 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? SELL No 50¢ $70 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? SELL No 50¢ $4 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? SELL No 50¢ $15 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? SELL No 50¢ $4 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? SELL No 50¢ $4 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? SELL No 50¢ $2 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY No 55¢ $110 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12? SELL Down 47¢ $23 36d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12? SELL Down 49¢ $74 36d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Down 50¢ $103 36d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? SELL Down 48¢ $96 44d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? BUY Down 51¢ $102 44d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? SELL Down 53¢ $78 44d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? SELL Down 53¢ $1 44d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? SELL Down 53¢ $26 44d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? BUY Down 54¢ $108 44d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 29¢ $267 45d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 29¢ $6 45d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 29¢ $307 45d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season BUY TLN Pirates 72¢ $102 47d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $473 52d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 60d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 60d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 60d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 60d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.22 · official $69.22 (match) · 53 history records