Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe85d…522d weather 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$60
world 9% −$21
other 7% +$3
crypto 3% −$21
politics 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -35.6% -41.7% 36% 24% -22.3%
≤30d 30 -42.7% -48.2% 33% 20% -24.9%
≤90d 30 -42.7% -48.2% 33% 20% -24.9%
all 30 -42.7% -48.2% 33% 20% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 20% -24.9%
10% -53.2% 10% -32.1%
15% -57.7% 7% -38.7%
20% -61.8% 3% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage21d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Yes 37¢ 41¢ $66 $74 +$8 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $61 +$15 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $103 −$46 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $33 −$19 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 19 $4 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $74 +$27 +37%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 19 $15 +$2 +13%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $55 −$15 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$4 -47%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 +$23 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$14 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL Yes 61¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.66 · official $99.66 (match) · 212 history records