Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe85e…0f89 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,666 (-17%) realized −$3,762 · open +$96
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$626
14 days+$658
30 days+$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$629
other 26% −$2,165
crypto 16% −$1,143
tech 11% −$1,152
politics 11% +$178
world 5% +$255
finance 3% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +42.5% +28.9% 100% 100% +10.0%
≤30d 6 +152.6% +128.5% 100% 100% +14.4%
≤90d 11 +69.9% +53.7% 73% 73% +15.6%
all 40 -7.0% -15.9% 40% 38% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 38% -26.7%
10% -23.9% 28% -33.7%
15% -31.3% 22% -40.1%
20% -38.0% 18% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$699) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$280 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$1,727
Realized−$3,762
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage581d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,308 $1,301 −$7 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Under 72¢ 88¢ $223 $274 +$51 (+23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $151 +$72 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $151 +$61 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $101 +$65 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2,496 +$427 +17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$31 +612%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $498 +$339 +68%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $235 −$220 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 10 $286 +$227 +79%
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 21 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $365 −$141 -39%
Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Dec 20 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $1,251 −$761 -61%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 26 $503 +$283 +56%
Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $1,988 −$1,484 -75%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 25 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Nov 25 $699 +$120 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 25 $1,427 −$536 -38%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23? Nov 20 $500 −$222 -44%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 19 $200 +$70 +35%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 15 $400 +$601 +150%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,193 +$72 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 01 $499 −$499 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 01 $1,002 +$191 +19%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 21 $154 −$154 -100%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 21 $552 −$547 -99%
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? Oct 20 $164 −$68 -41%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Oct 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 15 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 15 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 14 $250 −$101 -41%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 13 $999 +$255 +26%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 22 $855 −$313 -37%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 21 $500 −$285 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $124 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $151 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $151 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $2,496 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1,313 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $101 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 65¢ $101 23d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $15 34d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 42¢ $102 37d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 41d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $286 44d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $235 44d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 59¢ $498 49d
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $999 184d
Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $223 185d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20? SELL No 41¢ $223 185d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 67¢ $365 185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 186d
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 206d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? SELL No $15 208d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? BUY No 62¢ $132 208d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? BUY No 62¢ $343 208d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? SELL No 33¢ $474 208d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? BUY No 54¢ $776 208d
Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline BUY Clippers 37¢ $10 209d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? SELL No 100¢ $786 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,727.37 · official $1,702.64 · 88 history records