Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E8 0xe866…cc4d crypto 603 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$900 (+11%) realized +$911 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%259W / 344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$173
other 6% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 25% -11.2%
≤30d 244 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 603 -1.3% -10.7% 43% 41% -11.4%
all 603 -1.3% -10.7% 43% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 41% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 39% -19.9%
15% -27.1% 32% -27.7%
20% -34.2% 27% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$911
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses259 / 344
Open positions3
Markets (closed)603 / 603
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 35¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.19 · official $4.19 (match) · 3500 history records