Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe868…958a sports 264 markets active 2d ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-24%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%59W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$43
14 days−$63
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$327
other 29% −$68
crypto 9% −$79
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -71.0% -73.7% 11% 11% -62.6%
≤30d 42 -66.8% -70.0% 12% 12% -78.3%
≤90d 233 -21.3% -28.8% 24% 22% -33.0%
all 263 -23.3% -30.6% 22% 21% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 21% -33.4%
10% -37.2% 21% -39.8%
15% -43.3% 19% -45.6%
20% -48.9% 19% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses59 / 204
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage226d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Alessandro Schöpf: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $7 −$5 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $22 −$14 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$13 +206%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $41 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 21 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $5 −$3 -66%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof May 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 −$5 -51%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $1 +$5 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 40h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 42h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Austria vs. Jordan en BUY 24¢ $2 42h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $1 42h
Alessandro Schöpf: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 42h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 45h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 17¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 74¢ $3 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 46¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 33¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 1¢ $0 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 806 history records