Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe868…7c4f sports 393 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$239 (+6%) realized +$233 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%174W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$221
14 days+$221
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$183
other 49% +$7
crypto 0% +$2
culture 0% +$10
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +80.7% +63.5% 67% 67% +71.1%
≤30d 9 +128.6% +106.8% 78% 67% +61.0%
≤90d 349 +4.4% -5.5% 45% 43% -5.5%
all 388 +3.3% -6.5% 45% 43% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 43% -5.1%
10% -15.5% 40% -14.2%
15% -23.6% 37% -22.5%
20% -31.1% 33% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses174 / 214
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)388 / 393
History coverage94d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $99 +$171 +172%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $74 +$125 +170%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 25 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gr May 25 $5 +$8 +162%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $5 +$19 +364%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 24 $5 +$16 +314%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $9 +$16 +172%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 17 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$15 +149%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $37 −$37 -98%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $30 +$53 +180%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión end in a draw? May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw? May 10 $26 +$4 +17%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $60 −$37 -62%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $16 −$16 -98%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Huracán: Both Teams to Score May 10 $10 +$15 +150%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Huracán end in a draw? May 10 $15 +$32 +206%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? May 09 $12 +$16 +134%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $20 +$25 +124%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $10 +$17 +169%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $25 +$25 +96%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $25 −$6 -24%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Will CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? May 04 $1 +$3 +325%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mirassol FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-01? May 04 $26 +$94 +361%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 2h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $99 42h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $76 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu BUY 17¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $199 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $39 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 2d
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $57 29d
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $58 29d
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gr SELL Yes 99¢ $13 29d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand SELL Yes 100¢ $24 29d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand SELL Yes 89¢ $21 29d
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $25 29d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 29d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 29d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY Yes 21¢ $5 29d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY Yes 21¢ $5 29d
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gr BUY Yes 37¢ $5 29d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 30d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 30d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 30d
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 33d
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes $4 34d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 36d
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 36d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.91 · official $49.40 (match) · 919 history records