Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe872…04cb tech 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+5%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 78% +$26
other 18% +$7
crypto 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.5% +1.7% 100% 100% +1.7%
≤30d 3 -27.2% -34.1% 67% 33% -3.0%
≤90d 8 -44.4% -49.7% 50% 38% -5.1%
all 8 -44.4% -49.7% 50% 38% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 38% -5.1%
10% -54.5% 0% -14.2%
15% -58.9% 0% -22.5%
20% -63.0% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage36d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $148 $148 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June Jun 19 $131 +$16 +12%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $118 +$7 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $148 1h
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June SELL Yes 90¢ $76 2d
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June SELL Yes 90¢ $72 2d
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 79¢ $131 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $132 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $120 21d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 98¢ $7 23d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 98¢ $1 23d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 98¢ $5 23d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 98¢ $113 23d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 92¢ $118 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $115 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 36d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.08 · official $148.08 (match) · 19 history records