Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe879…750e sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$59 (+1%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$757per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +15.4% +4.4% 80% 80% -11.5%
≤30d 15 +15.4% +4.4% 80% 80% -11.5%
≤90d 15 +15.4% +4.4% 80% 80% -11.5%
all 15 +15.4% +4.4% 80% 80% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 80% -11.5%
10% -5.6% 53% -20.0%
15% -14.7% 20% -27.7%
20% -23.1% 20% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$897 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$757
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $556 −$394 -71%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $450 +$106 +24%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $253 +$197 +78%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $189 +$64 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $97 +$92 +95%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $956 −$846 -88%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $798 +$160 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $601 +$197 +33%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,049 −$1,450 -71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,545 +$505 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,345 +$251 +19%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $771 +$574 +74%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $681 +$91 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $588 +$94 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $478 +$110 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $109 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $53 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $556 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Under 96¢ $556 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $450 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $450 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $253 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 79¢ $253 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $189 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $32 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $157 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $97 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $110 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $690 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $266 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $958 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $798 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $798 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $601 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $599 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2,049 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,050 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,545 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,596 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1,345 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,344 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $771 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $772 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $681 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $681 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records