Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe87c…13cb crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$606 (-25%) realized −$606 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%54W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$626
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% -32.0%
≤30d 3 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% -32.0%
≤90d 101 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 50% -33.4%
all 101 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 50% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 50% -33.4%
10% -15.7% 50% -39.8%
15% -23.8% 43% -45.6%
20% -31.3% 27% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$606
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses54 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage90d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7PM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 21 $9 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 21 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 21 $4 +$5 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 21 $70 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 21 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 21 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 21 $3 +$5 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 21 $50 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 21 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 21 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 21 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 21 $17 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 21 $7 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 21 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 21 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 21 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 21 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 21 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 21 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 21 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 21 $22 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 21 $18 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 21 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 21 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 21 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 21 $23 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $68 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $7 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $33 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $8 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $40 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.71 · official $29.71 (match) · 252 history records