Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe87d…8caf crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$154 (-4%) realized −$156 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$49
14 days+$98
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$209
other 3% −$3
sports 3% −$100
world 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 33% +7.3%
≤30d 18 -24.2% -31.5% 44% 39% -17.3%
≤90d 35 -23.3% -30.6% 43% 40% -8.8%
all 77 -41.5% -47.0% 30% 27% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 27% -18.6%
10% -52.1% 27% -26.4%
15% -56.7% 23% -33.5%
20% -61.0% 13% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$24 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage170d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 23 $103 +$27 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Jun 23 $37 +$66 +180%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$1 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $143 +$150 +105%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $157 −$150 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $37 −$35 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 02 $104 +$33 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $105 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $104 +$45 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? May 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $72 +$55 +76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 22 $16 +$10 +61%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 13 $36 −$35 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 11 $51 +$31 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 11 $102 +$50 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? May 05 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3? May 04 $36 −$18 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $125 +$94 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $36 +$32 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 27 $25 −$23 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 27 $46 +$17 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 27 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 27 $69 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1PM ET Jan 26 $22 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 26 $18 −$12 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 26 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 26 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12PM ET Jan 26 $47 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 26 $50 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4PM ET Jan 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 84¢ $129 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 13¢ $16 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 75¢ $103 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $46 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY No 25¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 65¢ $101 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 64¢ $103 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $243 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $50 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 42¢ $143 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 31¢ $157 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 39¢ $104 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? BUY No 66¢ $87 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? BUY No 28¢ $37 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 54¢ $138 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 50¢ $151 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $105 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 38¢ $104 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 0¢ $1 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? BUY No 25¢ $21 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY No 69¢ $102 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL No 39¢ $25 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.56 · official $53.56 (match) · 145 history records