Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E8 0xe881…19ab sports 684 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,279 (-18%) realized −$9,246 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%151W / 507L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day63.1pace
Fees−$868est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,157
7 days−$3,573
14 days−$3,943
30 days−$6,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$5,264
other 32% −$6,415
finance 0% +$47
world 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -55.4% -59.6% 15% 15% -54.0%
≤30d 349 -58.6% -62.6% 9% 9% -52.2%
≤90d 658 -35.8% -41.9% 23% 21% -41.6%
all 658 -35.8% -41.9% 23% 21% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.9% 21% -41.6%
10% ← realistic here -47.5% 20% -47.2%
15% -52.6% 19% -52.3%
20% -57.2% 18% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$72 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,686
Realized−$9,246
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses151 / 507
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$868
Open positions18
Markets (closed)658 / 684
History coverage40d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day63.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $319 $313 −$6 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $292 $289 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 36¢ 34¢ $267 $259 −$8 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 34¢ 34¢ $255 $251 −$4 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $55 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $55 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $55 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $51 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-6%)
Will FC Universitario win on 2026-05-23? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $5 $12 +$8 (+156%)
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-23? Yes 15¢ 40¢ $3 $7 +$5 (+167%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-23? Yes 23¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+109%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $133 −$131 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $295 −$294 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $303 −$303 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $385 −$382 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $322 −$322 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $192 +$767 +400%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $431 −$431 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $551 −$551 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $673 −$673 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $849 −$849 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $1 $0 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,088 −$1,088 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $446 +$2,267 +508%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $756 −$756 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $75 −$74 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 0m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 0m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 1m
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 1m
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 2m
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 2m
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 12¢ $55 3m
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 3m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 4m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 4m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $104 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $107 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $99 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $165 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $156 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $199 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $207 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 1¢ $30 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $14 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $4 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $4 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 8h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,686.44 · official $1,686.63 (match) · 2671 history records