Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe888…74fd sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$184 (-18%) realized −$188 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$88
other 31% −$4
crypto 10% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 40% -31.1%
≤30d 10 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 40% -31.1%
≤90d 10 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 40% -31.1%
all 10 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 40% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 40% -31.1%
10% -39.2% 40% -37.7%
15% -45.0% 40% -43.7%
20% -50.4% 40% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$77 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $100 $148 +$48 (+48%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 17h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $25 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 26h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $51 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 38h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.85 · official $197.55 (match) · 17 history records