Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe888…ab06 other 1050 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$63 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%979W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$29
sports 29% −$32
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +11.8% +1.1% 100% 41% -1.2%
≤30d 17 +11.8% +1.1% 100% 41% -1.2%
≤90d 70 +0.3% -9.2% 93% 10% -6.1%
all 1047 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses979 / 68
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1047 / 1050
History coverage468d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1047 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 98¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +8%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$4 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 06 $12 −$6 -51%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-03-28? Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 06 $7 +$1 +8%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Mar 30 $12 −$3 -23%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $27 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays Mar 29 $7 $0 +2%
Panthers vs. Rangers Mar 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $6 $0 +3%
Canucks vs. Flames Mar 29 $7 $0 +0%
Utah vs. Kings Mar 29 $5 $0 +0%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Mar 29 $6 $0 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers Mar 29 $6 $0 +2%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Mar 28 $6 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles Mar 28 $6 $0 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Mar 28 $7 −$4 -55%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Mar 28 $7 −$3 -41%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $7 $0 +2%
Panthers vs. Islanders Mar 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $8 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Mar 28 $8 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Mar 28 $8 $0 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves Mar 28 $8 $0 +1%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 28 $8 $0 +1%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Mar 28 $8 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 27 $8 $0 +3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners Mar 27 $8 $0 +1%
Kings vs. Canucks Mar 27 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $30 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 74¢ $30 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $30 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $40 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $30 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $30 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $30 36h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $8 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $7 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $30 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $40 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $9 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $25 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $3 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $13 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $20 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $25 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY 97¢ $50 6d
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets SELL Bruins 100¢ $6 83d
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets BUY Bruins 99¢ $6 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.01 · official $71.01 (match) · 2294 history records