Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe88d…3db1 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-9%) realized −$22 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$66
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$95
crypto 27% −$52
world 8% −$9
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.3% -42.3% 0% 0% -47.8%
≤30d 4 -11.0% -19.5% 25% 25% -34.1%
≤90d 13 -62.3% -65.9% 8% 8% -45.3%
all 19 -59.4% -63.3% 16% 5% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.3% 5% -47.4%
10% -66.8% 5% -52.5%
15% -70.0% 5% -57.1%
20% -73.0% 5% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage370d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $56 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $38 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+32%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $39 −$4 -9%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $67 −$50 -75%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $51 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 05 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 05 $43 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 05 $28 −$10 -36%
2025 June hottest on record? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $3 $0 +8%
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $35 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $35 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $19 2h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 34¢ $37 2h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $17 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 22¢ $39 2h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $20 16h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 24¢ $20 16h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $15 16h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 10d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $51 10d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $39 10d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 31¢ $31 10d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down $6 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $7 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 48d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $30 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 48d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $18 48d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 49d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $28 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.35 · official $173.35 (match) · 40 history records