Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe88f…49c1
other · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$16 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)2 / 19
History coverage147d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 17 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% −$3
tech 26% −$7
crypto 8% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.18 · official $56.14 · 19 history records