Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe890…94ce other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,229 (-78%) realized −$1,229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$94
14 days−$393
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$939
sports 15% −$159
crypto 8% −$19
politics 3% +$1
finance 1% −$9
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +53.2% +38.6% 100% 100% +46.4%
≤30d 9 -48.9% -53.8% 33% 33% -75.7%
≤90d 12 -50.5% -55.2% 33% 33% -80.6%
all 31 -44.5% -49.8% 42% 35% -75.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 35% -75.5%
10% -54.6% 26% -77.9%
15% -59.0% 13% -80.0%
20% -63.0% 6% -82.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$70 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage458d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$71 +70%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $25 +$12 +48%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$147 -99%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $280 −$277 -99%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 26 $184 −$181 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-14? Apr 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 25 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 25 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 23 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 23 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 21 $4 +$1 +25%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 8, 1PM ET Oct 24 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 1PM ET Oct 08 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 9, 10AM ET Oct 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 11AM ET Oct 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Milei out as President of Argentina before July? Sep 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 08 $84 −$84 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 2¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 1h
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals BUY 9¢ $0 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $149 8d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $201 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $82 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 11d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 26d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 26d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 66¢ $68 26d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 35d
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar BUY Joao Fonseca 50¢ $150 58d
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar BUY Joao Fonseca 47¢ $27 58d
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar BUY Joao Fonseca 44¢ $7 58d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records