Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe891…3be8 sports 534 markets active 18h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$365 (+11%) realized +$368 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%294W / 236L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$43
14 days+$131
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$219
other 20% +$103
world 1% +$10
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +9.8% -0.7% 55% 55% +6.9%
≤30d 147 +19.2% +7.8% 59% 59% +10.3%
≤90d 483 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 55% +1.0%
all 530 +9.9% -0.5% 55% 55% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 55% -0.2%
10% -10.1% 54% -9.7%
15% -18.7% 49% -18.5%
20% -26.7% 45% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$368
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses294 / 236
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)530 / 534
History coverage123d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 56¢ 53¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ 8¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $3 +$2 +61%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $11 +$14 +125%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $4 +$1 +31%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $3 +$2 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +119%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $4 +$2 +57%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $11 +$4 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $5 +$5 +109%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $3 +$2 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 +$1 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 +$3 +172%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 +$2 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $5 +$5 +114%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $7 +$3 +36%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $3 +$5 +146%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 +$3 +114%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $4 +$6 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 +$18 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $7 +$10 +134%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +172%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $3 17h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 19h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 20h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 21h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $3 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 22h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 22h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 23h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Yannick Hanfmann 76¢ $4 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 62¢ $4 23h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Abedallah Shelbayh 55¢ $6 24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $4 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 36h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 37h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 37h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 39h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $3 40h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $3 41h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $4 44h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $4 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 45h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $4 45h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 60¢ $3 45h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 45h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 54¢ $2 46h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 54¢ $4 47h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol BUY Federico Bondioli 19¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.73 · official $48.73 (match) · 1379 history records