Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe891…e3dd sports 496 markets active 5h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,011 (-4%) realized −$2,009 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate54%266W / 228L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$515est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$711
14 days−$670
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$2,760
crypto 9% −$131
politics 3% +$299
other 0% +$6
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.8% -26.5% 27% 20% -21.3%
≤30d 62 +27.1% +15.0% 61% 31% -10.6%
≤90d 494 -2.1% -11.5% 54% 34% -13.9%
all 494 -2.1% -11.5% 54% 34% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 34% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 20% -22.2%
15% -27.7% 13% -29.7%
20% -34.8% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$34 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$2,009
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses266 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$515
Open positions2
Markets (closed)494 / 496
History coverage65d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 89¢ 86¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $334 −$56 -17%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$33 +82%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $91 −$69 -76%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $143 −$53 -37%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 16 $15 −$5 -33%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 16 $432 −$23 -5%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $1,079 −$212 -20%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $407 −$19 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,404 −$324 -23%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$15 -15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $254 −$140 -55%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$61 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$2 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $903 +$119 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$1 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $76 −$8 -11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $110 −$3 -3%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$6 -56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$20 -64%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $43 +$11 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $964 +$87 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $243 +$10 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $920 +$44 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $509 −$241 -47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $24 +$9 +38%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $701 +$30 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$22 +11%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$5 +36%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$2 +20%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $300 +$6 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $200 +$8 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $260 +$5 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $501 +$36 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $505 −$6 -1%
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -17%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $200 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $58 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $25 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 74¢ $10 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $36 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $69 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 59¢ $11 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 62¢ $22 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $65 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $202 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $9 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 3¢ $2 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ $27 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 24¢ $20 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 72¢ $20 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 75¢ $20 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $41 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $51 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 4¢ $1 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $19 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 29¢ $8 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $31 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 48¢ $26 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 62¢ $86 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $20 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $10 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 41¢ $33 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $12 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $10 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $101 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $101 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.41 · official $59.41 (match) · 3365 history records