Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe894…9f6d other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+8%) realized +$51 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$97
14 days+$80
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$65
sports 30% −$21
crypto 11% +$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.6% +9.1% 60% 60% +33.4%
≤30d 33 +16.8% +5.7% 55% 55% +3.4%
≤90d 43 +11.4% +0.8% 53% 53% -1.4%
all 44 +8.9% -1.5% 52% 52% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 52% -1.6%
10% -10.9% 45% -11.0%
15% -19.5% 43% -19.6%
20% -27.4% 30% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage185d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 73¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+19%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$24 +48%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$7 +243%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$13 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $17 +$13 +74%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 27 $21 −$4 -21%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $30 +$7 +22%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $36 +$8 +23%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $20 −$8 -37%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $20 +$15 +72%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $27 −$27 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $60 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.13 · official $117.13 (match) · 84 history records