Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe894…f7d3 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$5
other 31% −$1
sports 5% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 13 +10.1% -0.3% 15% 8% -10.2%
≤90d 14 +9.4% -1.0% 14% 7% -10.2%
all 43 +2.7% -7.1% 14% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -16.0% 2% -18.6%
15% -24.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -31.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage266d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $66 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $61 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $23 −$2 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $56 +$3 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $119 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $106 −$4 -4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $26 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Jan 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Washington vs. UCLA Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $33 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $10 $0 -3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $46 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $65 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $66 15h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $20 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $66 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $46 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $18 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $13 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.05 · official $58.56 (match) · 371 history records