Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E8 0xe895…3285 politics 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$11
politics 37% −$12
economics 6% −$2
sports 5% +$52
tech 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 103 +1.7% -8.0% 8% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 7% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×15.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage121d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $292 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 30 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $256 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $196 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $445 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $241 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $243 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $559 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $259 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $267 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $467 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $486 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $224 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $224 34d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 35d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 35d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $230 35d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $230 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records